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justo

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Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« on: July 19, 2011, 12:14:05 AM »
So today we are looking at a company called China Linen Textile Industry LTD (CTXIF). China Linen Textile Industry, Ltd. China Linen Textile Industry LTD is principally engaged in the production and sale of linen yarn and various types of linen fabric. The Company is also involved in consultation and R&D related to linen technology and linen products. The Company carries on all of its business activities through its subsidiary, Heilongjiang (try saying that 10 times fast) Lanxi Sunrise Linen Textile Industry Co., Ltd. ("Lanxi Sunrise"), near Harbin City in China. So this basically means that China Linen Textile Industry LTD is a holding company.

This company is doing a lot of great things, and here are a few reasons why you should buy into this company (and hopefully make an excellent return). Oh and brace yourself, this is going to be a long one but a good one.

Reasons to Buy

1.   It Is Undervalued:
Using an intrinsic value formula we find that the company should be trading at approximately 20.33ish (for those of you who do not know the intrinsic value formula you are more than welcome to look it up, just search Benjamin Graham). Its book value is approximately 5.02, which is also more than double what the stock is trading at (right now about 2.25), and is also about double what the industry average is for book value. Furthermore, when looking at their latest financials it can be seen that their current  EPS (diluted of course) is approximately 0.44 (the value I have shown here is slightly different than their stated value of 0.46, as I do not believe government subsidies should be included as actual earnings). This is also only for 1 quarter! If we multiply this by 4 quarters we would have earnings of about 1.76! It is fairly safe to assume this as their revenue streams are not cyclical in nature (read financial statements) so each quarter’s earnings should be roughly the same. However it should be pointed out that this may not necessarily be true as it is possible that unforeseen circumstances may arise (earthquake, politics, regulations etc.).

 This means that the company is only trading at about 1.3X earnings. When we look at the textile industry as a whole the average P/E ratio is about 25.5X. If we use that number as an average CTXIF should be trading at just under $45. Now that is a little overpriced in my opinion, but it’s good to know. A more appropriate valuation of where it should be trading at would be 10X earnings ($17.6). We can also look at CTXIFs net profit margin (2010) which is well above the industry average of 3.2% at approximately 17.6%, which is huge for the industry. I’ll explain why I think this is so further down.

On a side note, it should also be noted that during their 2010 year they were operating at full capacity and couldn’t actually take on any more orders (even when operating 24 hours a day). They also did not utilize their fabric subcontracting revenue stream to generate revenue. Once the company expands (as it has due to the purchase of a yarn spinning operation) and if it were to utilize the additional subcontracting revenue stream, their EPS would be much higher. We’ll keep it conservative for now though.

2.   Key Relationships:
CTXIF has a few relationships that give it some particularly great advantages over its competitors. One is that some of the companies that it imports raw materials from and exports it’s finished goods (Harbin Zhongyi and Harbin Sunshine) have special licenses granted to them by the PRC (Peoples Republic of China) which allow them to take advantage of special waivers on import/export taxes in areas of northeast China (where CTXIF does some of its business).  Now this may not seem that big of a deal except that the company's CEO, Gao Ren, owns these companies. Hmmmm how convenient lol! So CTXIF pays almost no mark-up for any imports and exports. This is one reason why CTXIFs costs are minimized and it has a high profit margin.

The company is also considered to be a leading manufacture enterprise by the local government, Lanxi Government ("Lanxi Government"), which has a long-term desire to encourage Lanxi Sunrise to expand its production capacity and to create more job opportunities for local residents. For that purpose, the local government has granted various subsidies to Lanxi Sunrise. These subsidies offset over 40% of its income taxes and also cover some of its land, building, and sewage facilities improvement costs. This is another reason why their costs are low, as they are reimbursed for a number of them.

The company has also partnered with Tianjin Institute of Technology and Donghua University in order to research more cost effective ways to produce linen and yarn. Furthermore, the company’s subsidiary Lanxi Sunrise is building the first and only linen research and development center in China. Should this be completed AND the research pays off in the form of decreased costs (or some other discovery) the company should be more profitable.

On the customer side of things, the company has diversified its customer group over the past year to not have such a high threat from buyers. 2 years ago 90% of the company’s revenue was generated by its 5 largest customers. Its five largest customers now only account for about 47%, which means a decreased threat from buyers. The risks of not having buyers are greatly minimized as the company has entered into many long term contracts with them. This was outlined as a concern that management was looking at, and they are obviously trying to fix it.

3.   Excellent Management:
The companies CEO is doing great things and is delivering on all of his promises. He has said that the company is looking to expand, which they did by purchasing a company that produces yarn, and is continually looking for more acquisitions to increase its percentage of the market. The company is also looking to expand into India and Turkey as well as produce more high quality yarns and linens. I guess we’ll see how they perform! The CEO has also been recognised as the “National Entrepreneur with Honesty in Business”, “China Enterprise New Man of the Year”, “Entrepreneur with Honesty in China Textile Industry Business” and “Model Worker of National Textile Industry.” Management is also very good at using their invested capital, as in 2010 they achieved an ROIC (return on invested capital) of about 6%. This is a decent return (this is not an ROI, but somewhat similar).

The only downside to management is that they currently have poor internal controls and have limited accounting personnel. This is minor though, as any changes that needed to be made to their financial reports are dealt with swiftly, which leads back to how honest management is.

4.   Other Advantages:
While CTXIF has a lot of competition, many of them only produce thread and currently do not have the capability to produce fabric. Due to this the company is one of the largest manufacturers of linen cloth in China. In addition the company’s operating facility operates 24 hours a day, in which workers work for three eight hour shifts! That is pretty insane considering they were operating at full capacity in 2010. If only there were 25 hours…

Risks:

The risks that potentially face the company are minor and many of which are not expected to happen. Some of these are a change in customer demand, a change in government policy, and the risks associated with managing rapid growth. The one major concern that I think would be the most likely to become apparent is the managing of rapid growth. The company is growing very quickly, with EPS growing over 12% over the past few years, as well as very large increases in assets and acquisitions of companies. I do believe that Gao Ren and the rest of the management team will prevail in this area though.

There are also a few risks to the shareholders in regards to the company. It may difficult to file any lawsuits against them as their main operations are in China. Currently I don’t see any reason to file a lawsuit, and I think this risk is greatly minimized by the CEO, as he seems like an honest and trustworthy man. Gao Ren does own about 40% of the company though, which can either be a curse, if he messes around, or a blessing, as his stocks are worthless if the company doesn’t perform. The company is also incorporated in the Cayman Islands, which means that it may be difficult for shareholders to protect their interests if the actions of management cause concern.

Conclusion:

The company is a great buy at its current price of 2.20ish (and in my own personal opinion it is still a great buy anywhere under $15). It has growing EPS, it is undervalued by a substantial amount, it utilizes key relationships very well and it has excellent and honest management. I believe that this company is worth about $18 based on a combined look at its EPS, its intrinsic value, its book value and the strength of its management. I also believe this is a little conservative because if we look at its growth potential and how it stands relative to the industry as a whole it could be worth closer to $45 maximum (as of right now), and it is far out-performing the industry average. The company is also looking to grow and expand its business, which could lead to higher earnings in the future, and thus a higher share price.

Now I know that these numbers are much larger than what it is trading at, so if you don’t believe me then check out CTXIF for yourself.:)

http://www.chinalinentextile.com/

And please feel free to follow me on Twitter! JustinG101

justo

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Re: Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2011, 12:36:02 PM »
Hey everyone just thought I’d post a few things about CTXIF as I know that there is some concern that it isn’t a “real” company, as there have been a few Chinese companies that have turned out to be fraudulent or they have misstated things in their financial statements. But I assure you these guys are real lol.

I’ve been emailing the CFO Jodie Wehner and Scott Powell (who does some work for them) and asked them a few questions. And for anyone who doesn’t believe me feel free to contact me and I can forward you their responses. But here’s what I asked and what their answers were in a nutshell.

I asked them:

1.   What the company plans to do about its low share price?
2.   What does the company plan to do about the matter regarding the defamation of most Chinese companies and the scepticism the public may have on whether CTXIF is a “real” company or not.
3.   Who are its customers/end users? (For some reason I had a tough time finding this but I think I just accidently skipped over it somewhere)
4.   Why is the accounts receivable and inventory so high from the last fiscal quarter? Is that a concern for shareholders?
5.   Do you have any information that would lead investors to believe that you are a legitimate company? (Ya I actually asked them that. A little rude and a little obnoxious I know I didn’t mean for it to come across that way. Just trying to be safe!)
6.   What their affiliation is/was with Global Hunter Securities.

Here were there responses:

Scott:

The company is always reviewing methods to increase shareholder value and take actions that also make sound business sense. If the company decides to take actions such as paying a dividend, etc., it will be announced via a press release.

I have not heard the rumours you are referring to but please remember this is a former state owned company. I and other colleagues of mine have also visited their facilities near Harbin.
Some of the end users are Hugo Boss, Marks & Spenser, H&M, etc. (There are many others as well, such as Zara, Orion, and Laurus Miani, who are pretty big players).

Jodie:

No problem. Thank you for your interest. We disclose our top customers' information in the Management Discussion section of our Qs and Ks. Our DSO improved from 107 days in 2010 to 81 days in 1Q, which is not bad in Chinese companies. We did increase our inventory in the 1Q as we strategically purchased more raw materials in anticipation of price increase and higher sales order. We'd explained that clearly in the 1Q call and PR (how did I miss that?! – that’s me talking to myself btw). Global Hunter Securities does not currently cover our company. We focus on our business to deliver good results for investors and welcome all our investors to visit our operation in China.

There you have it. I mean yes they could be outright lying to me, but I really doubt that is the case. Anyway, I still stand firmly behind this company and I think they will make their shareholders a lot of money. Good luck everyone! And if anyone has any questions feel free to ask!

justo

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Re: Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2011, 08:59:55 PM »
Hey everyone. Just a little update on CTXIF. They announced today that they will be holding a conference call and report Q2 on August 15 at 8:00 am ET. I am obviously very excited to see how the company has performed in Q2. I expect that during the Q&A there will be some questions regarding its low share price and what it intends to do about the risks with regards to the U.S debt crisis.

I have also been constantly e-mailing Scott Powell who is currently visiting their operations over in China, so any new news that I get from him shall get posted.

All in all it’s nice to see that CTXIF isn’t crashing with the rest of the market. This could be due to a number of reasons. 1. It currently is already at a very low level for what it is worth. 2. Investors who own the stock do not want to sell because they know it is worth more. 3. It is a somewhat unknown company.

I have been trying to get an updated B-1 form so I can see all those that own the stock, but for now check out this e-mail from Jodie (the companies CFO) which I have copied and pasted below.

Hi Justin,

I don’t think we file B-1 form as a foreign company. As far as I know, Creation International owns 40% our shares, CEDE & Co in New York 15%, 4% shell company, the rest are China/HK, Europe and US investors. We mainly have individual investors except institutional holders for convertible notes. Xiao is checking with our transfer agent, we will update you if we have new or different information.

Thanks,

Jodie

But I do urge everyone to check out the conference call on Monday and look over their most Q2 financial statements to see how undervalued this company is.

justo

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Re: Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2011, 07:52:54 PM »
This morning China Linen Textile Industry LTD announced their Q2 results, which were amazing. To get a more complete picture on how they are doing for the year I am going to use the 6 months ended results.

Six months ended June 30, 2011:

Revenue increased approximately 81%! And this number is not just due to an increase in prices. They have made more money by selling more volume due to new customers and new products.

Gross Profit is up 115%! This is due to increases in sales prices and the ability to better control production costs from their takeover of the yarn spinning plant.

Operating Income up 106%!

Net income up 65% over the previous 6 months!

Diluted EPS of about $0.97. If the company continues this rate their EPS for the 2011 year should be very close to $2.00 a share, which is almost what the company is currently trading at. Furthermore, if the share price does not reach at least $5.32ish the conversion notes will most probably not be converted. If the notes do not get converted the EPS will be about $1.138 as the EPS will not be diluted. That would mean that by years end regular EPS should approximately equal what the stock is currently trading at. As an owner of the business if you bought in right now you would make your money back within about 1 year, which is an amazing feat.
 
Book Value per share equals approximately $5.55.

Working capital of about $4.22.

The company is still extremely undervalued and yet it continues to outperform many other companies as I will show below using EPS.

6 months (diluted) EPS/Current Market Price

China Linen Textile Industry LTD               $0.97/2.25
Lululemon Athletica                  $0.24(roughly)/57.88
Bombay Rayon (non-diluted and for the whole year)      $0.42/6.16 (converted roughly to USD)
Maxwell Industries LTD   (for the year)            $0.0016/0.50

CTXIF grossly undervalued even compared to companies in the same industry.

justo

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Re: Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2011, 02:18:26 PM »
China Linen announced today that they will be presenting at the Rodman & Renshaw Annual Global Investment Conference from September 11-13. This isn’t a huge article but the link is below.

http://ir.stockpr.com/china-linen/company-news/detail/293/china-linen-textile-industry-ltd-to-present-at-the-rodman-renshaw-annual-global-investment-conference-on-september-12th-at-3-15-pm-et

justo

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Re: Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2011, 10:00:20 PM »
China Linen announced today that they have hired Mr. Manuel Henares Arenas as Senior engineer and consultant to China Linen. This looks like a good sign as long as the potential gains from hiring Mr. Henares become apparent. Hopefully with Mr. Henares knowledge and skills he will decrease the company’s labour expenses while also improving the quality of the fabric that they produce. Higher quality fabric will lead to more expensive prices which will (hopefully) lead to more profits. While China Linen’s margins are above average, having better margins will increase profits, thus making the company’s ability to capitalize on its expansion goals much easier.

The full news announcement can be viewed at http://ir.stockpr.com/china-linen/company-news/detail/303/china-linen-textile-industry-ltd-announces-engagement-of-spanish-senior-engineer

justo

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Re: Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2011, 08:49:04 PM »
The company announced today that it has purchased (so far) 70,000 shares at an average price of 2.42. While this amount is still quite small it does give some confidence that the company is on the same side as shareholders. (Now we just need them to start paying a dividend!).

Now in my own personal opinion a share repurchase isn’t the best way to restore the market price of a stock for a few reasons. One is that by purchasing share in the open market any shareholder who sells is made to suffer as large a loss as possible, for the presumable benefit to those who hold on. Although this is a proper viewpoint to follow in purchasing other kinds of assets for the business, there is no inherent logic or ethical base for applying this idea to the acquisition of shares from a company’s own shareholders. Management SHOULD be more obligated to act fairly toward the sellers because the company itself is on the buying side.

The other qualm I have about this is that any money used to repurchased shares is money that could be distributed to shareholders as a dividend. A dividend would benefit all the shareholders as opposed to only those who keep their stock.

I still think the company is great, and I expect a great Q3 from them which should be published out in November.

justo

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Re: Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2011, 12:19:07 PM »
Just received an e-mail from their CFO in regards to the share repurchases. It seems that management used their own money to purchase the shares in the market. So disregard the section in my last post about the purchasing of shares by the company being unethical.

justo

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Re: Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2011, 08:26:57 PM »
The company announced today that its subsidiary, Heilongjiang Lanxi Sunrise Linen Textile Industry Co., has received two awards at the China National Textile and Apparel Council Press Conference held on October 19th. The two awards were “Linen Textile Industry Top 10 Competitive Enterprises” and “Textile and Apparel Industry Top 500 Competitive Enterprises.” More signs that the company is doing great things and is becoming more established. It’s too bad their stock is down (most likely due to low liquidity), but they should produce an excellent third quarter.
 
Here is the link to the article:

http://markets.on.nytimes.com/research/stocks/news/press_release.asp?docTag=201110250800PR_NEWS_USPRX____CN92694&feedID=600&press_symbol=6704946

justo

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Re: Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« Reply #9 on: November 15, 2011, 10:59:26 PM »
Third Quarter Financial Results

I just finished listening to China Linens conference call and going over their Q3 financial statements. Here are the results:

•   Revenues increased 15.2% to $16.2 million
•   Gross profit increased 25.5% to $5.5 million, up 280 basis points to 34.3%
•   Net income increased 8.2% to $3.1 million
•   Diluted EPS was $0.45 for the quarter and 1.41 for the 9 months ending,
•   P/E ratio of 1.3X for the 9 months ending
•   Cash position of 5.1 million, or 0.72 per share.
•   Working capital as of September 30, 2011 totaled (approximately) $34.2 million (4.78 per diluted share).
•    The Company had total shareholders' equity of $43.7 million (6.11 per diluted share) at September 30, 2011, with total assets of $63.3 million versus total liabilities of $19.6 million, compared to total shareholders' equity of $32.2 million at December 31, 2010, with total assets of $51.6 million versus total liabilities of $19.5 million.
•   The book value of net assets per diluted share was approximately $6.11 as of September 30, 2011.
•   Liquidating value (using very conservative figures such as only receiving half the monetary amount for inventory) is approximately 3.32 per share (2.71 diluted). 

The company is continuing its growth strategy, and should finish the year quite strong.

justo

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Re: Fantastic Buy of CTXIF
« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2012, 12:15:11 PM »
I’m a little late on announcing the highlights of China Linen’s past year, but here they are:

1.   Increases in revenue from $49 million to $64 million. Increase of 30%.
2.   Net Income increases from $9.5 million to $12.3 million. Increase of 29%.
3.   Basic EPS of $2.11 (which is insane, as the company’s stock is currently trading at $1.60). Diluted EPS of $1.80. This gives P/E ratios of 0.76 and 0.89, respectively.
4.   Cash position of $0.86 per share. That is over half its current share price.
5.   Net Working Capital of $5.21 per share.
6.   Net Assets of $8.03 per share.

The company continues to perform as can be shown by their financials. Management is making excellent decisions. I would watch them closely, as they will continue to expand this company by acquiring dying plants. The company is a great buy at its current price, $1.60, as there is an extremely large upside potential. With $0.86 per share in cash and the over $7 per share in assets, you get a lot for a little. Look forward to a great year in 2012.

@JustinG101

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