Daily Market Commentary for May 17, 2012

And the whoopla of Facebook continues... if Facebook (FB:Nasdaq) prices at $41 a share or more, it will raise $19.861 billion and beat the previous record set by Visa (V:NYSE) which raised $19.65 billion when it went public March 18, 2008.
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The U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday that the number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits was unchanged last week at 370,000. Jobless claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 370,000 from initial reading 367,000. The average number of new jobless claims over the past four weeks fell by 4,750 to 375,000. In week ended May 5, continuing jobless claims increased by 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.27 million, with continuing claims reported with a one-week lag. Nearly 6.27 million people received some type of state or federal benefit in week ended April 28, down 149,759 from the prior week.

The Conference Board said Thursday that the economy is 'still struggling to gain momentum', though long-term trends remain expansionary as it reported that its index of leading economic indicators fell 0.1% in April striking the first decline since September. "Growth is slow, but choppy, and consumers, executives and investors are looking for more progress," said Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board, a private research group. The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators that are designed to signal business cycle peaks and troughs. Among the 10 indicators that make up the LEI, led by building permits, four made negative contributions in April. The LEI rose 1.8% in the six months through April, compared with a gain of 0.1% in the prior six months.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday that business conditions at manufacturing firms in the Philadelphia region worsened in May. The Philly Fed index fell to -5.8 from 8.5 in April, well below expectations. The new-orders index dropped to -1.2 from 2.7 in April and the employment index which is a gauge of hiring expectations, turned negative. Readings below zero indicate that more companies are contracting instead of expanding.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT:NYSE) on Thursday reported its Q1 profit increased 10% to $3.74 billion or $1.09 a share, from $3.4 billion or 97 cents a share in the year-ago period. Total revenue rose 8.5% to $113 billion and sales increased 8.6% to $112.3 billion. Wal-Mart said it expects Q2 profit of $1.13 to $1.18 a share.

GameStop Corp. (GME:NYSE) reported Thursday its Q1 profit fell to $72.5 million or 54 cents a share, from $80.4 million or 56 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Sales fell to $2 billion from $2.3 billion and GameStop expects Q2 earnings of 10 cents to 18 cents a share.

In the run-up to this weekend's NATO summit in Chicago, 12 people have been arrested at protests and demonstrations, according to Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy. Of the dozen people arrested, 10 were taken into police custody in "voluntary" fashion, McCarthy said in remarks broadcast by the public-television station WTTW. One man from Los Angeles, was charged with a felony for physically attacking a police officer. Protest events that have taken place so far have been small relative to those scheduled for Friday and thereafter including, demonstrations in which 'black bloc' protesters are expected to be involved. The first full-scale NATO gathering in a U.S. city other than Washington, the main meetings at the summit are slated for Sunday and Monday at the McCormick Place convention center.


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Daily Market Commentary for April 17, 2012

Futures market provided a nice respite of consistent trading ranges for Futures traders Tuesday, especially the emini futures - YM, NQ and ES.
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CME Group, the world's leading and most diverse derivatives exchange, released the following statement Tuesday regarding the Administration's proposal to increase oversight of energy markets: "CME Group agrees that manipulation is detrimental to markets and should be vigorously policed, as is currently being done. However, we caution against mistakenly categorizing speculation as a form of manipulation. Market makers and speculators, serve an important function in the market – allowing energy users and producers to manage oil price risk and providing the necessary liquidity to ensure effective price discovery and more efficient transfer of price risk. The Administration's proposal to use margin requirements to control cash prices is misplaced. The Administration must recognize that exchanges, as the operators of regulated energy markets, are in the best position to monitor volatility and manage margin requirements. Margins are based on volatility and cannot be used to manage cash prices. Rather, they serve as important tools for CME Group and other exchanges to use in managing the financial risks of the clearing houses we operate, which are a key component of the risk management policies being put into effect under Dodd Frank. Additionally, taking away from exchanges the ability to manage margins would make the markets less efficient, less tied to fundamentals and would create the potential to push the hedgers out of the market, which would make oil more expensive for all consumers."

Citing improved financial conditions and unwinding of the financial crisis on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2012 and 2013, but warned that the recovery remains fragile. In an update of its world economic outlook, the Washington-based institution said it expects global output to grow by 3.5% in 2012, up from a January forecast of 3.3%. Global output is expected to expand 4.1% in 2013, up from the previous forecast of 3.9%. The only major country that had its 2012 growth outlook cut by the IMF was Spain with expectations of a decline of 1.8% from the previous forecast of a 1.6% drop. After a mild recovery in early and mid-2011, the Bank of Spain said earlier Tuesday that the Spanish economy is back in recession. The IMF said the European Central bank has some room to further lower interest rates as inflation is expected to fall below the central bank's 2% inflation target.

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that builders began construction on new U.S. homes at a slower pace in March, but permits jumped to the highest level since September 2008. Housing starts fell 5.8% last month to an annual rate of 654,000 from a slightly revised 694,000 in February with permits increasing 4.5% to 747,000 in March from a revised 715,000 in February. The move is mainly because of a spike in requests to construct multi-dwelling buildings with five units or more. With permits for new construction viewed as a gauge of future demand, the latest increase suggests builders are becoming more optimistic. As builders continue to face pressure from the flood of foreclosed homes on the market, permits for single-family homes fell 3.5% to 462,000 during March from 479,000 in the prior month. Single-family homes account for about three-quarters of the market for new housing. Over the past 12 months, housing starts are up 10.3%. In the South, new home construction sank nearly 16% accounting for the entire drop last month. In the North, housing starts surged higher by nearly 33%. In the Midwest , housing starts moved up slightly by 1% while starts remain unchanged in the West. Over the past 12 months, housing starts are higher by 10.3%.

The Federal Reserve reported Tuesday that industrial production remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, in March. While utilities output gained 1.5%, manufacturing output slipped 0.2% while mining output rose 0.2%. Capacity utilization ticked lower to 78.6% from an upwardly revised 78.7%. Industrial production rose at a annualized rate of 5.4% during Q1 2012.

A challenging lawsuit was filed Tuesday by the mutual fund lobby group, the Investment Company Institute along with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rule requiring mutual fund managers to come under the agency's oversight. The pair argue that the rule 'layers' the CFTC's regulatory regime onto one that already exists at the Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, the pair say the CFTC failed to weigh the costs or benefits of the rule and that it will also impose 'redundant regulations' on exchange-traded funds.


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Daily Market Commentary for April 11, 2012

The U.S. Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit accusing Apple Inc. as well as, five major publishers, of conspiring to fix the prices of e-books. (read more at Millennium-Traders.Com)
http://www.millennium-traders.com/news/newscommentary.aspx

The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday in the Feds Beige Book, that the U.S. economy continued to grow at a 'modest to moderate pace' over the last month. The term is the same adjective used to describe the economy in the prior two reports. Every region covered by the Fed's 12 districts grew, ranging from 'modest' in the Cleveland and St. Louis regions to a 'faster pace' in the Kansas City area.

The U.S. Treasury Department reported Wednesday that the U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $198 billion in March. The March figure pushed the deficit up to $779 billion for the first six months of fiscal 2012. The deficit for the first half of fiscal 2012 is lower than the one recorded in the same period in 2011, but the government remains on track to post another deficit of more than $1 trillion for the entire 2012 fiscal year

Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren on Wednesday said prime money-market funds, which make up a big chunk of the $2.7 trillion industry, have structural problems that could amplify a future financial crisis if further reforms are not adopted. "Some prime funds have taken on significant credit risk - at times incurring losses that necessitated the support of the parent or sponsor of the fund, and in one case substantial government support," said Rosengren. The Securities and Exchange Commission may soon propose new capital restrictions on money funds, coupled with limitations or fees on redemptions by consumers or other money fund purchasers. Rosengren added that with 'appropriately calibrated' capital and redemption policies. the incentive for investors to run would be greatly reduced. The move would reduce the risk that investors would not receive the full value of their redemptions, he added. Comments from Rosengren come after Fed chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday evening reiterated his concerns about money funds.

On Wednesday, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said the most important step in restoring market discipline to the financial system would be to eliminate too-big-to-fail policies, including taking advantage of a provision in the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act that would force divestitures or termination of new activities within 180 days if a financial holding company isn't well managed or capitalized. George also said bank capital standards, in particular leverage requirements tied to equity capital, need to be strengthened as she fretted about the lengthy transition period of Basel III. Risk-based capital standards is a concern of George because banks are quick to arbitrage whatever standards there are and because it is hard to say risk weights have been accurate measures of risk. George supported the implementation of the Volcker Rule and added there may be more financial activities that are incompatible with public safety nets.

The U.S. Labor Department said Wednesday that the prices paid for goods imported into the U.S. climbed higher by 1.3% in March, mainly because of higher oil costs. Compared to a revised 0.1% decrease in February, import prices in February were originally reported up 0.4% and fuel costs surged higher by 4.3% as the price of oil soared. Excluding fuel prices, import prices rose by only 0.3% last month. The price of U.S.- made goods exported to other nations, rose 0.8% in March.

President Barack Obama on Wednesday touted the controversial and, in many quarters unpopular, 'Buffett rule' that would force the wealthiest Americans to pay taxes at the very least at the same rate as regular wage earners. In a twist aimed to needle conservative opposition, Obama said the principle was once supported by a 'wild-eyed socialist, tax-hiking, class warrior' named Ronald Reagan, who once said it was 'crazy' that loopholes allowed millionaires to avoid paying their share of taxes. Congress should approve the so-called Buffett Rule, President Barack Obama reiterated on Wednesday, keeping up a push for what he calls tax fairness. The rule, named after Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett, would require millionaires to pay at least 30% of their income in taxes before charity. Speaking in Washington, Obama said a vote next week in Congress is an opportunity for lawmakers 'to stand up for the middle class and make the tax system fair'.

On Wednesday, Tim Fox, a judge in Arkansas, slapped Johnson & Johnson with a fine of more than $1.1 billion following a jury ruling that the company's Janssen subsidiary hid risks associated with Risperdal, an antipsychotic drug. Judge Fox found that Johnson & Johnson committed about 240,000 violations of the state's Medicaid fraud law, one for each Risperdal prescription issued to Medicaid patients over a 31/2-year period, with each violation carrying a $5,000 fine. Johnson & Johnson said it was 'disappointed' with the decision and plans to appeal.


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Daily Market Commentary for March 26, 2012

BATS Global Markets Inc.’s botched initial public offering Friday could be disastrous for the upstart electronic exchange.
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National Association of Realtors reported pending home sales dipped slightly in February as its pending home sales index fell to 96.5% during March from a revised 97.0% in January, although it's still 9.2 percentage points above its year-ago level. "The spring home buying season looks bright because of an elevated level of contract offers so far this year. If activity is sustained near present levels, existing-home sales will see their best performance in five years," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. By region pending home sales: rose 6.5%% in the Midwest, dropped 3.0% in the South, fell 2.6% in the West and fell 0.6% in the Northeast. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed while not all contracts lead to closings.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday improvement in the nation’s labor market since last fall may only be a reversal of large layoffs that hit during the recession, and further improvement may depend on faster economic growth. “We cannot yet be sure that the recent pace of improvement in the labor market will be sustained,” said Bernanke in a speech to the National Association of Business Economics. Fed Boss said that weak demand is the primary factor behind the weak labor market, not structural issues like lack of employment skills in the workforce. “What will lead to more hiring and, consequently, further declines in unemployment? The short answer is more-rapid economic growth,” Bernanke said. Bernanke and his allies at the Fed have said they expect rates to remain near zero until late in 2014 and while the drop in the unemployment rate was good news, it seemed somewhat out of sync with the overall pace of growth.

On Monday, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged medical device firm Biomet Inc. with violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act for bribing public doctors in Argentina, Brazil, and China. The SEC said the company continued to break the law for about a decade and was designed to win it more business. Biomet will pay more than $22 million in order to settle the charges. "Biomet's compliance and internal audit functions failed to stop the payments to doctors even after learning about the illegal practices," the SEC said. The SEC alleges that employees and managers at all levels were involved in the scheme, along with its distributors.


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Daily Market Commentary for March 13, 2012

The Federal Reserve is fighting a subpoena for Fed chairman Ben Bernanke to testify in a civil lawsuit challenging Bank of America's takeover of Merrill Lynch & Co in 2008 (read more at Millennium-Traders.Com)
http://www.millennium-traders.com/news/newscommentary.aspx

Commerce Department on Tuesday reported that retail sales climbed the fastest in five months in February, as rising gasoline prices weren’t enough to choke off U.S. consumers’ demand for cars, clothing and other goods. The report said sales rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1% to $407.8 billion last month, with January’s retail sales revised higher to show a 0.6% advance instead of the 0.4% initially reported. December sales were upwardly revised to show a 0.3% gain instead of a previously reported flat performance and excluding autos, sales for February climbed 0.9%. February’s sales climbed a strong but less impressive 0.6%, excluding autos as well as sales at gasoline stations. Monthly gasoline sales jumped 3.3%, the best advance since March, with average gas prices 20 cents a gallon higher at the pump than in January, gasoline stations had a banner month. The Energy Information Administration is expected to knock off $629 from the average natural-gas heating bill this winter, being a reason why consumers may have continued to spend despite the increased pressure at the pump was the unusually warm weather. For the second consecutive month, building materials, garden equipment and supplies dealers saw a 1.4% gain. Sales at clothing and clothing accessory stores climbed 1.8% to a 15-month high as Americans bought spring clothes early. Sales at dealers of motor vehicles and parts bounced back from a January decline to advance 1.6%. February sales data showed furniture and home-furnishing stores with a 1.2% drop, the worst month since April 2011, while department stores’ sales rose 1.5%, the best monthly gain since November 2010. Compared to February 2010, retail sales overall rose 6.5% and excluding autos and gas, retail sales were 5.8% stronger. Retail sales aren’t adjusted for price, so with inflation running at around 3%, volumes are up about 3.5% compared to the same month of the prior year.

In January, business inventories climbed as car dealers correctly anticipated a strong pickup in demand, as reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday. Inventories rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% to $1.57 trillion, the largest increase since October. December’s inventories were revised higher to show a 0.6% increase from the 0.4% previously reported. The ratio of inventories to sales at the end of January remained at 1.27. The growth in January’s inventories was driven by a 2.6% surge in motor vehicle and parts stockpiles, which helped set the stage for the 1.6% gain in sales of cars and parts for February. Retail inventories grew 1.1%, but growth was 0.4% excluding autos. Rising inventories are usually viewed as a good sign for the economy, as they suggest companies are stockpiling goods in anticipation of selling them at a future date.

U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk announced Tuesday that the U.S. has requested talks with China at the World Trade Organization about China's export restrictions on certain rare-earth minerals. The talks are the first step in a WTO dispute settlement process and if the matter is not resolved in 60 days, the U.S. can ask the WTO to set up a dispute settlement panel. Additionally, the European Union and Japan asked for talks with China on the rare minerals, tungsten and molybdenum. "China continues to make its export restrains more restrictive, resulting in massive distortions and harmful disruptions in supply chains for these minerals throughout the global marketplace," Kirk said in a statement. China lost a similar WTO case on its export limits on magnesium and zinc, in January. The Obama administration has recently taken a tougher stance with China on economic issues.

The Labor Department on Tuesday reported job openings at U.S. workplaces declined to 3.46 million in January from 3.54 million in December. Job openings rose 21% compared with the prior year with private openings having increased 23% to 3.11 million and government openings rose to 352,000 from 325,000. When the recession began in December 2007, there were nearly 4.3 million jobs open. In January, with nearly 12.76 million unemployed people, there were nearly 3.7 potential job seekers for each opening, roughly the same as in December. In January of 2011, there were about 13.92 million unemployed people - about 4.9 potential seekers per opening. The number of separations, such as quits and layoffs, fell slightly in January to 3.94 million from 4.02 million in December. Total number of hires decreased to 4.16 million from 4.19 million.

The following is the text of the announcement made by the Federal Open Market Committee Tuesday: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. The housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The recent increase in oil and gasoline prices will push up inflation temporarily, but the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014. The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014.” The following is the text of the announcement made by the Federal Open Market Committee Tuesday: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance. The housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The recent increase in oil and gasoline prices will push up inflation temporarily, but the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate. To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014. The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014.”


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