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MTnews

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Fed Chairman Economic Outlook
« on: June 08, 2011, 03:57:46 PM »
Daily Market Commentary for June 8, 2011

Bernanke sees U.S. economic growth so far this year somewhat slower than expected. (read more at Millennium-Traders.Com)
http://www.millennium-traders.com/news/newscommentary.aspx

In contrast, virtually all segments of the construction industry remain troubled. In the residential sector, low home prices and mortgage rates imply that housing is quite affordable by historical standards; yet, with underwriting standards for home mortgages having tightened considerably, many potential homebuyers are unable to qualify for loans. Uncertainties about job prospects and the future course of house prices have also deterred potential buyers. Given these constraints on the demand for housing, and with a large inventory of vacant and foreclosed properties overhanging the market, construction of new single-family homes has remained at very low levels, and house prices have continued to fall. The housing sector typically plays an important role in economic recoveries; the depressed state of housing in the United States is a big reason that the current recovery is less vigorous than we would like.

Although the recent increase in inflation is a concern, the appropriate diagnosis and policy response depend on whether the rise in inflation is likely to persist. So far at least, there is not much evidence that inflation is becoming broad-based or ingrained in our economy; indeed, increases in the price of a single product--gasoline--account for the bulk of the recent increase in consumer price inflation.

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that they would keep production quotas at current quota. The move gave crude-oil futures a boost, moving them above $100 a barrel. In Vienna, OPEC member countries decided to maintain official production targets after failing to reach an agreement to raise output. Some OPEC members vowed to evaluate the issue again, in three months. Bernanke said that both jobs and growth would pick up in the final six months of the year.


Economic data released today:

MBA Mortgage Applications: U.S. MBA Market Index -0.4% at 517.5 as compared to Last Week 519.4; U.S. MBA Purchase Index -4.4% at 182.9 as compared to Last Week 191.4; U.S. MBA Refinance Index +1.3% at 2,475.7 as compared to Last Week 2,442.9.

Crude Oil Inventories as released by the Department of Energy [DOE]: U.S. Refineries ran at 87.2% capacity and was seen at 86.00% capacity; U.S. Refineries ran At 87.2% vs. 86.0% capacity week ago; U.S. Distillate Stockpiles +0.81 Million Barrels in week was seen at -0.2 Million Barrels; U.S. Distillate Stockpiles +0.81 Million Barrels at 140.926 Million Barrels; U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles +2.209 Million Barrels In Week; Seen +0.6 Million Barrels; U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles +2.209 Million Barrels at 214.492 Million Barrels; U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles -4.845 Million Barrels in week; Seen -0.4 Million Barrels; U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles -4.845 Million Barrels at 368.961 Million Barrels.

Beige Book: Manufacturers reported passing along part of higher costs; most areas report commodity price increases; wage growth remains modest; jobs market conditions improve gradually in most of U.S.; energy industry shows strength; oil drilling robust; cool, wet weather turn farming conditions unfavorable; loan demand steady to stronger in most areas of U.S.; housing sector remains weak; supply disruptions due to Japan quake hurt auto sales; higher food, energy prices weigh on spending; consumer spending mixed in U.S.; manufacturing expands in some parts U.S.; growth slows in other areas; U.S. economy expanded in spring; pace slows in some parts.


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