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31
Staff at Goldman Sachs staff can look forward to the biggest bonus payouts in the firm's 140-year history after a spectacular first half of the year, sparking concern that the big investment banks which survived the credit crunch will derail financial regulation reforms.

A lack of competition and a surge in revenues from trading foreign currency, bonds and fixed-income products has sent profits at Goldman Sachs soaring, according to insiders at the firm.

Staff in London were briefed last week on the banking and securities company's prospects and told they could look forward to bumper bonuses if, as predicted, it completed its most profitable year ever. Figures next month detailing the firm's second-quarter earnings are expected to show a further jump in profits. Warren Buffett, who bought $5bn of the company's shares in January, has already made a $1bn gain on his investment.

Goldman is expected to be the biggest winner in the race for revenues that, in 2006, reached £186bn across the entire industry. While this figure is expected to fall to £160bn in 2009, it will be split among a smaller number of firms.

Barclays Capital, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank are among the European firms expected to register bumper profits, along with US banks JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley following the near collapse and government rescue of major trading houses including Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, UBS and Royal Bank of Scotland.

In April, Goldman said it would set aside half of its £1.2bn first-quarter profit to reward staff, much of it in bonuses. It is believed to have paid 973 bankers $1m or more last year, while this year's payouts are on track to be the highest for most of the bank's 28,000 staff, including about 5,400 in London.

Critics of the bonus culture in the City said the dominance of a few risk-taking investment banks is undermining the efforts of regulators to stabilise the financial system.

Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman, said: "The investment banks more than any other institutions created the culture of excessive leverage, excessive risk and excessive bonuses that led to the downfall of the financial system. Now they are cashing in and the same bonus culture has returned. The result must be that we are being pushed to the edge of another crash."

Goldman Sachs said it reviewed its bonus scheme last year and switched from a system of guaranteed rewards that were paid over three years to variable payments that tied staff to the firm. It told employees last year that profit-related bonuses would be delayed by 12 months.

Until the release of its first quarter profits in April, it seemed inconceivable that a firm owing the US government $10bn would be looking to break all-time records in 2009.

David Williams, an investment banking analyst at Fox Pitt Kelton, said: "This year is shaping up to be the best year ever for investment banks, or at least those that have emerged relatively unscathed from the credit crisis.

"These banks are intermediaries in the bond markets where governments and companies are raising billions of pounds of new money. There is also a lack of competition that means they can charge huge sums for doing business."

Last week, the firm predicted that President Barack Obama's government could issue $3.25tn of debt before September, almost four times last year's sum. Goldman, a prime broker of US government bonds, is expected to make hundreds of millions of dollars in profits from selling and dealing in the bonds.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/21/goldman-sachs-bonus-payments
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32
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank said it will lend banks 442 billion euros ($621 billion) for 12 months, the most it has ever allotted in an auction, as it steps up efforts to unblock credit markets in the 16-nation euro region.

The Frankfurt-based ECB filled all bids in its first offer of 12-month loans to banks at the current benchmark interest rate of 1 percent. The 1,121 banks that participated receive the funds tomorrow. The euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, for 12-month loans fell to 1.57 percent today, a record low.

“It’s even more than our most optimistic scenario would have suggested,” said Christoph Rieger, a fixed income strategist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “There is so much liquidity around that it will push money-market rates to new record lows.”

The ECB, battling Europe’s worst recession since World War II, is concentrating its efforts on lubricating the banking system, which accounts for about three quarters of company financing in the region. The central bank has cut interest rates to the lowest on record and will next month start buying 60 billion euros of covered bonds to help free up credit.

Today’s allotment is “broadly equivalent to one third of all sovereign issuance in the euro zone this year,” said Erik Nielsen, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in London. “It’s a big number, providing the intended monetary easing by stealth. I suspect that the ECB is very pleased.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZhZvQc0E_Eg
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33
TOKYO (Kyodo)--The government on Wednesday upgraded its assessment of the Japanese economy for the second month in a row and deleted the phrase meaning deterioration from its report for the first time in seven months, citing signs of recovery in exports and industrial production.

''While the economy is in a difficult situation, movements toward picking up are seen in some areas,'' the Cabinet Office said in its monthly report for June, in the latest indication that the worst of the recession may be over.

The government had used the expression indicating a downturn to describe the state of the economy since last December.

In May, it said, ''While the economy is in a difficult situation, the pace of deterioration has become moderate,'' raising its overall economic assessment for the first time since February 2006. In the previous three months, it said the ''economy is worsening rapidly while in a severe situation.''

In its June report, the office said the prospects for the economy amid the harsh employment situation are ''likely to remain severe for the time being.''

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/tnks/Nni20090617D17JF869.htm
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34
Eurozone banks face additional losses of more than $283bn this year and next as continental Europe’s severe recession intensifies strains on its financial sector, the European Central Bank has warned.

The fates of the eurozone economy and its banks have become increasingly interlinked, the ECB reported on Monday in its latest “financial stability review” with banks losses expected to be focused on their loan exposures. Risks to the stability of the financial sector remained high, it said, while “uncertainty prevails” over the shock-absorbing capacity of the banking system.

Its stark comments could fuel calls for European politicians to step up the “stress-testing” of the Continent’s banks to restore confidence in the system. Weaknesses in continental Europe’s banks have come under increasing global scrutiny recently, with finance ministers facing pressure at a G8 summit in southern Italy at the weekend to follow the lead set by the US.

Lucas Papademos, ECB vice-president, said that “a negative interplay” between the financial sector and the economy had become clearer since the start of this year. He stopped short of calling for more rigorous stress testing or the publication of review results saying the issue “remains the responsibility of national authorities”. The ECB, which acts as the monetary authority for the 16 countries that share the euro, is not a bank supervisor.

However Mr Papademos repeated the ECB’s plea for banks to ensure they had sufficient capital and liquidity buffers and to take advantage of government support schemes.

Despite the scale of the bank losses that the ECB saw as still facing eurozone bank, it was strikingly less gloomy than the International Monetary Fund, An IMF report in April put expected write-downs this year and 2010 at US $750bn, although taking account of loss provisions and write-offs up until May this year would reduce that to about $540bn. The gap was due to different assumptions, for instance on the performance of loans.

The ECB also expressed confidence that the eurozone’s largest banks could endure any further economic deterioration, saying “most … appear to be sufficiently well capitalised to withstand severe but plausible downside scenarios”.

Among the main risks to the eurozone’s financial system identified were: a renewed loss of confidence in the financial strength of large banks; balance sheet strains facing insurers; larger-than-expected further falls in US house prices, and “an even more severe than currently projected economic downturn in the euro area,” Mr Papademos said. Banks also faced the risk that they had become “possibly too reliant” on emergency liquidity provided by central banks since the start of the financial crisis, according to the ECB report

While attention had so far focused on write-downs related to asset-backed securities and derivatives, the report said that “increasingly … attention is focusing on corporate debt and the likely loan losses that may materialise as the turmoil continues and the real economy endures a significant slowdown.” The ECB does not expect the eurozone to return to positive quarterly growth until the middle of 2010.

The ECB also warned about the threat posed by an intensification of the difficulties facing central and eastern Europe economies. But it concluded that even if the “worse case” scenario materialised this year in the European Union’s newest member states, Asia and South America, the balance sheets of the eurozone’s largest banks would, overall “not be unduly strained” – although some individual banks would be significantly worse affected.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/34f0b6c0-59c5-11de-b687-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34f0b6c0-59c5-11de-b687-00144feabdc0.html%3Fnclick_check%3D1&_i_referer=&nclick_check=1
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35
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=amB3ytMcNUW4

June 11 (Bloomberg) -- You can see it in the body language when speaking with Japanese officials.

It’s a kind of physical resignation that, well, here we go again: deflation, negligible growth, political maneuvering. There is also an air of lament that Japan is an example of what many economies don’t want to become.

I could see it in Hiroshi Nakaso’s eyes last week, as the Bank of Japan executive director explained, for the umpteenth time, why interest rates in Asia’s biggest economy are near zero percent. The same goes for Hiroko Ota, Japan’s former economic and fiscal policy minister.

“The worst is over but I can’t say the economy is heading for a recovery at all,” Ota said in a June 4 interview. It’s probably even worse news that Ota, now vice president at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo, says Japan’s recovery may be “W-shaped,” instead of V-shaped.

The reason for pessimism is that Japan’s experience with a W-shaped recovery may be a harbinger for the biggest economies.

Concerns about a Japan-like “lost decade” in the U.S. and elsewhere are well-known. That specter is becoming less likely as trillions of dollars of stimulus work their way through the economy. Talk of another Great Depression is now giving way to fears of an historic inflation surge. What is becoming more likely, though, is the W-ization of the business cycle.

Bear-Market Rallies

The bear-market-rally argument making the rounds in Asia and the U.S. is preferable to this one. It would merely mean that today’s rallies will look a bit overdone in the weeks ahead. The prevalence of W-shaped cycles could be with us for years. That would be terrible for the “green shoots” supporters who claim the worst is over in global markets.

Here’s how it would look: Each increase in gross domestic product would fizzle as quickly as it began, undermining rallies in equity markets. Not a lost decade, yet not one that investors would enjoy. Such a scenario would reflect steps that policy makers are taking to restore growth.

From Washington to Beijing, officials are still treating the symptoms of the crisis, not the cause. Throwing money at the problem was fine for a while. It is now time to revamp regulations, retool economies and restore trust in markets.

Consumers worried they won’t have a job in a month need to rely on the economic outlook. Investors must be confident that the top-rated security they are buying won’t soon be worthless. Banks need to be sure that money they lend won’t lead to more bad loans. Restoring that trust will require bold action by governments and market regulators.

Twilight Zone

The price that Japan paid for avoiding tough decisions is now seen in the country’s extreme vulnerability to global export trends. Japan is stuck in the economic equivalent of the “Twilight Zone.” It’s often forgotten that Japan’s growth in the first half of this decade was underpinned by the largest public debt among developed nations and zero interest rates. Healthy and organic growth it was not.

The risk of a W-shaped world economy has been a preoccupation of Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong, in recent years. Markets “that want to price in a classic ‘V-shaped’ recovery, I think, are in fantasyland right now,” Roach said on June 4.

Even China, the nation many view as best positioned to avoid the worst of the global recession, may be heading this way as the effects of stimulus efforts wear off. At that point, the fourth-biggest economy will face a dismal export environment.

China Puzzle

That scenario makes the debate over what New York economist Brad Setser calls “the China puzzle” all the more relevant. On his blog, the former U.S. Treasury official has been exploring why China is growing when other export powerhouses aren’t.

A particular area of focus has been shifts in China’s policies before and after the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. One preliminary conclusion: China had more capacity than most large exporters to stimulate domestic demand once the “Lehman shock” devastated global markets.

The real post-Lehman surprise may be how economic cycles and markets gyrate and don’t go very far for a while. Part of the problem is the “bubble fix” phenomenon pervading financial centers such as London, New York and Tokyo. Central banks have slashed interest rates toward zero.

Marc Faber, Hong Kong-based publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, rarely misses an opportunity to compare today’s markets to a relapsing alcoholic, and central banks to irresponsible bartenders. To dole out more booze, as monetary officials have been doing, is the wrong medicine.

That’s where markets find themselves, and investors are getting tipsier by the day. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has surged 49 percent from a five-year low on March 9. Equities from Mumbai to Shanghai to Tokyo are rallying on rising confidence that the worst of the global recession has passed.

Perhaps investors are right to revel in recent good news. If we are merely scaling the slope of a W-cycle, though, today’s bulls won’t be happy a few months from now.

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36
Trading Strategies from the Street / House to Subpoena Fed
« on: June 11, 2009, 08:44:30 AM »
WASHINGTON -- U.S. House lawmakers on Tuesday said they would file a subpoena to compel the Federal Reserve to turn over internal notes and emails detailing the central bank's role in encouraging Bank of America Corp. to complete its acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co.

The House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, chaired by Rep. Edolphus Towns (D., N.Y.), has asked the Fed to turn over documents requested by the panel last week. The documents requested include emails to and from Chairman Ben Bernanke, as well as handwritten notes from meetings and conversations involving Bernanke, then Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis.

The request is being made ahead of a Thursday hearing in which Mr. Lewis is scheduled to appear before House lawmakers. Congressional investigators have been investigating the details of Bank of America's acquisition of Merrill Lynch, as well as the government's decision to give the company $20 billion in additional government aid in January.

Additionally, lawmakers have been examining testimony given by Mr. Lewis to New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in which he suggested top Fed and Treasury officials pressured him to complete the deal for Merrill Lynch despite ballooning losses at the securities firm.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124457748334599149.html
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37
LUXEMBOURG -- The European Central Bank expects further financial-sector weakness could help keep the euro-zone economy from expanding before the middle of next year, a top policy maker said in an interview.

ECB officials believe the euro-zone recession could weaken the 16-nation bloc's strained banking system. "That is the reason why we are also cautious about the gradual recovery path in our scenario," said Yves Mersch, who sits on the ECB's 22-member Governing Council.

Mr. Mersch, head of Luxembourg's central bank, is a lawyer and political scientist whose influence on ECB policy exceeds the tiny nation's importance in the euro zone's economy.

In the interview, he said financial-sector weakness, which could push more European banks to fail, is "already penciled in" to policy makers' calculations. He suggested policy makers see their role shifting from actively shoring up the bloc's financial system and economy to monitoring the effect of measures they have taken.

"We must move away from an announcement policy to an implementation policy," Mr. Mersch said.

"But if the ceiling is falling on our head," he added, noting developments could turn out worse than the central bank expects, "we have to change."

In May, the ECB cut its key rate to a record low of 1% and announced a program to buy €60 billion ($83 billion) in low-risk bonds. Central banks in the U.K. and U.S. have taken their key rates close to zero and launched broader asset-purchase programs to boost economic activity.

The prospect that a worse-than-expected downturn could throttle European banks is spurring concern outside the bloc. The International Monetary Fund warned Monday that financial-sector weakness could thwart the euro zone's economic recovery. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will press the Obama administration's case for European authorities to run tougher bank stress tests at a meeting of finance ministers from the Group of Eight leading nations at a meeting in Italy this week.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124458116932999475.html
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38
Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. agreed Monday to settle claims that employees misled investors about the value and safety of certain securities during the financial crisis.

Wells's Boston-based mutual fund Evergreen Investment Management Co. agreed along with its brokerage unit to pay $40 million to end civil state and federal securities-fraud allegations that it overvalued the holdings of its Evergreen Ultra Short Opportunities Fund and then, when it was going to lower the value of the securities, informed only select investors -- many of them customers of an Evergeen affiliate -- allowing them to cash out of the fund and lessen their losses.

Separately, Bank of America agreed to "facilitate" the return of more than $3 billion to California clients who purchased auction rate securities, an investment that went sour last year amid a liquidity freeze. The bank reached the agreement with the California Department of Corporations.

"We are pleased that the outcome of these negotiations will result in the return of money to many investors who suffered by the freezing of their assets when the auctions failed," said California Department of Corporations Deputy Commissioner Alan Weinger. A bank spokeswoman couldn't be reached for comment.

The Wells case highlights the valuing of securities as a key issue during the financial crisis as banks, hedge funds and now mutual funds have failed to take losses on their holdings even though there was evidence in the market these securities were trading at lower prices.

In one case Evergreen, which had $164 billion in assets at the end of the first quarter, was holding a security at nearly full value when another fund at the firm purchased a similar security for 10 cents on the dollar.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124447741263994585.html
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39
Trading Strategies from the Street / Microsoft To Move Jobs Offshore
« on: June 08, 2009, 08:45:15 AM »
Microsoft Corp. Chief Executive Officer Steven Ballmer said the world’s largest software company would move some employees offshore if Congress enacts President Barack Obama’s plans to impose higher taxes on U.S. companies’ foreign profits.

“It makes U.S. jobs more expensive,” Ballmer said in an interview. “We’re better off taking lots of people and moving them out of the U.S. as opposed to keeping them inside the U.S.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAKluP7yIwJY
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40
WASHINGTON -- The Securities and Exchange Commission needs to take further steps to crack down on "naked" short selling, U.S. lawmakers said Wednesday, after government auditors recommended more aggressive action to prevent market manipulation.

In a short sale, traders sell borrowed stock with the expectation they can buy it back later at a lower price. In a naked short sale, traders sell stock they haven't borrowed. Some executives argue naked short selling allows market manipulators to drive down shares artificially.

One idea is to require that traders borrow shares before they try to sell a stock short, known as a preborrow. Last summer, the SEC issued an emergency rule requiring preborrowing for certain financial firms' shares, but the industry said it was too expensive, and the requirement was abandoned.

A bipartisan group of senators said the SEC needs to consider new restrictions to help quell naked short selling. "Unless the SEC can develop an appropriate alternative, a strict preborrow requirement may be the only way to adequately protect shareholders' rights," Sen. Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa) said in a joint release with Sen. Carl Levin (D., Mich.) and Sen. Arlen Specter (D., Penn.).

The statement came after the Government Accountability Office found that SEC regulations issued earlier this decade only temporarily slowed cases of "failure to deliver," which occurs when the seller of a security doesn't deliver the security to the buyer during a required period. These cases can occur for a variety of reasons, including naked short selling.

An SEC spokesman said the SEC appreciates the GAO's recommendations and is focused on short selling, including examining a preborrow requirement.

Several commentators have recommended a more permanent pre-borrow requirement, the GAO said. However, the organization noted that the SEC is more cautious about this.

"SEC staff said that they are continuing to evaluate the appropriateness of a pre-borrow requirement for addressing FTD and market manipulation related to naked short selling," the GAO said.

"However, SEC staff said that the costs of a pre-borrow requirement might outweigh the benefits because FTD represent 0.01 percent of the dollar value of trades, and that a small group of securities (small market capitalization, thinly traded, or illiquid) are likely to be the target of any manipulative scheme," it added.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sec-staff-cautious-on-pre-borrow-rule-gao?siteid=rss&rss=1

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41
June 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices unexpectedly jumped in May by the most since 2002, adding to signs the worst of the recession is over, a report by Halifax showed.

Home values rose 2.6 percent from the previous month to an average of 158,565 pounds ($260,000), the division of Lloyds Banking Group Plc said in a statement in London today. Economists predicted a 1 percent drop, according to the median of 12 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, prices fell 13.7 percent.

Services industries expanded for the first time in a year in May and consumer confidence rose to a six-month high, reports yesterday showed, in further evidence the economy is emerging from its slump. The Bank of England will still keep spending newly printed money to bolster lending at its decision today, economists say.

“There are some tentative indications of a possible stabilization in activity, albeit at a low level,” said Nitesh Patel, an economist at Halifax, said in the statement. “House sales remain substantially below their long term average and market conditions are expected to remain difficult.”

The monthly increase was the first in four months, Halifax said. In the three months through May, prices fell 16.3 percent from a year earlier.

The Bank of England will announce its monthly decision at noon today. Policy makers will probably leave the key interest rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, according to all 62 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. All but three of 40 economists forecast the bank will refrain from expanding its plan to pump new money into the economy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQpUAJDU0t8I
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42
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/12-pct-are-behind-on-mortgage-apf-15369809.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

12 pct. are behind on mortgage or in foreclosure

Delinquencies and foreclosures set record in 1st quarter, driven by prime loan defaults

NEW YORK (AP) -- An industry report shows that a record 12 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are behind on their payments or in foreclosure as the housing crisis spreads to borrowers with good credit.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday the foreclosure rate on prime fixed-rate loans doubled in the last year, and now represents the largest share of new foreclosures. Nearly 6 percent of fixed-rate mortgages to borrowers with good credit were in the foreclosure process.

At the same time, almost half of all adjustable-rate loans to borrowers with shaky credit were past due or in foreclosure.

California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida accounted for 46 percent of new foreclosures in the country.
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43
Trading Strategies from the Street / Opel Rescue Talks Stall
« on: May 28, 2009, 08:29:28 AM »
May 28 (Bloomberg) -- Negotiators in Berlin working through the night failed to finalize the rescue of General Motors Corp.’s Opel unit after the U.S. automaker demanded an extra 300 million euros ($415 million) in cash.

The talks at German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s offices, which included members of her Cabinet and state-level officials, a representative of the U.S, Treasury and corporate executives, narrowed the bidders to Fiat SpA and Magna International Inc. as they haggled over terms. The government hopes to reach a solution by tomorrow, German Economy Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg told reporters at 4:30 a.m. in Berlin.

“This was a bizarre night” said Guttenberg. “The talks were turned upside down by GM’s unexpected demands. We do not have the assurances we need in order to extend a bridge loan.”

Detroit-based GM, facing a potential bankruptcy filing, asked for immediate cash assistance from the German government to keep Opel operating. Merkel, seeking re-election on Sept. 27, is under pressure from lawmakers and labor unions to save 25,000 German Opel jobs.

“We had a nasty surprise when this demand turned up literally at 8 p.m.,” an hour before the talks started, said German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck. “We did consider this a bit of an outrage.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arO7EMKYHwV8&refer=home

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44
Trading Strategies from the Street / $1 trillion "Run on Britain"
« on: May 27, 2009, 10:52:01 AM »
Banking crisis undermines Britain's reputation as a safe place to hold funds

A silent $1 trillion "Run on Britain" by foreign investors was revealed yesterday in the latest statistical releases from the Bank of England. The external liabilities of banks operating in the UK – that is monies held in the UK on behalf of foreign investors – fell by $1 trillion (£700bn) between the spring and the end of 2008, representing a huge loss of funds and of confidence in the City of London.

Some $597.5bn was lost to the banks in the last quarter of last year alone, after a modest positive inflow in the summer, but a massive $682.5bn haemorrhaged in the second quarter of 2008 – a record. About 15 per cent of the monies held by foreigners in the UK were withdrawn over the period, leaving about $6 trillion. This is by far the largest withdrawal of foreign funds from the UK in recent decades – about 10 times what might flow out during a "normal" quarter.

The revelation will fuel fears that the UK's reputation as a safe place to hold funds is being fatally comp-romised by the acute crisis in the banking system and a general trend to financial protectionism internat- ionally. This week, Lloyds became the latest bank to approach the Government for more assistance. A deal was agreed last night for the Government to insure about £260bn of assets in return for a stake of up to 75 per cent in the bank. The slide in sterling – it has shed a quarter of its value since mid-2007 – has been both cause and effect of the run on London, seemingly becoming a self-fulfilling phenomenon. The danger is that the heavy depreciation of the pound could become a rout if confidence completely evaporates.

Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities, commented: "The outflow of overseas banks' UK holdings is not surprising – indeed foreign investors in general will still be smarting from the sharp fall in the exchange rate last year, as many UK liabilities are priced in sterling terms. That raises the question of what could possibly tempt overseas investors to return to the UK. Further heavy outflows of funds are probably a given."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/run-on-uk-sees-foreign-investors-pull-1-trillion-out-of-the-city-1639413.html
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45
The Nikkei estimates that Japan passenger car production in fiscal 2009 will likely decrease to 1979 levels, mostly due to a plunge in exports.

The projection, which was compiled based on automakers’ data and interviews with company officials, calls for the eight Japanese passenger car firms to assemble 8.21 million vehicles in the year ending in March 2010, 14% fewer than last year and the second consecutive annual decline, following a 15% fall in fiscal 2008.

Toyota Motor Corp. and seven other Japanese passenger carmakers are being forced to lower production because exports, which absorbed 58% of their total domestic output in fiscal 2007, remain weak. While sales are picking up in some areas of Europe, thanks to government measures to encourage car owners to upgrade to new vehicles, demand in the mainstay US market continues to be soft. As a result, the companies’ total exports in fiscal 2009 will likely plunge by 25.7% to 4.04 million units.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/05/japan-1979-20090525.html

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/ac/tnks/Nni20090525D25JFF03.htm
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