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Daily Market Commentary for February 27, 2012

National Association of Realtors reported Monday that pending home sales - contracts but not closings - climbed 2% in January to the highest level since April 2010 with the pending-home-sales index rising to 97.0 from a downwardly revised 95.1 reading in December.
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On Sunday, the Group of 20 said that the euro zone will consider increasing the size of the region's bailout fund next month, according to reports following a meeting of the group in Mexico. Members of the Group of 20 would consider increasing the resources available to the International Monetary Fund if the euro zone gives approval for the increase. Those resources could take the form of bilateral loans and note purchase deals.

Over the weekend, the G-20 said it will support adding more funds to the International Monetary Fund if the euro zone also contributes more money. “Europe must demonstrate its own efforts for the entire world to see,” said Japan’s finance minister Jun Azumi, while U.K. chancellor George Osborne stressed that “until we see the color of their money, I don’t think you are going to see any money from the rest of the world.” Late this afternoon, Germany is voting to approve a second austerity package for Greece.

National Association for Business Economics reported, according to the latest survey economists expect the U.S. recovery to pick up a little more speed during the latter half of 2012. The outlook of the NABE panel of 45 forecasters projects growth in U.S. gross domestic product at 2.4%, skewed slightly toward the second half. A summary of the February survey from NABE shows expectations for an average unemployment rate of 8.3%, as the economy adds some 170,000 jobs a month for 2012. With housing starts pegged to rise 19% from 2011 to 700,000 units and with real residential investment improving to a 6.6% increase for 2012 and to 10% growth for 2013, the group is forecasting a housing recovery. The NABE survey respondents continue to believe that spending growth by businesses will be strong but that consumer spending will remain subdued.

On Monday, TransCanada Corp. said the company will spend nearly $2.3 billion to build a portion of the controversial Keystone XL pipeline to bring oil from the storage facilities of Cushing, Oklahoma out to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Formerly part of the Keystone project, the new Cushing pipeline, "will be constructed as a stand-alone Gulf Coast project" with a targeted completion date in 2013. TransCanada said it's reapplying for permission to build the Keystone XL pipeline between the U.S. and Canada, as it continues to work with Nebraska officials to reroute the pipeline around an environmentally-sensitive region. President Barack Obama 'welcomes' TransCanada's decision to build a pipeline to bring crude oil from Cushing, Oklahoma, to the Gulf of Mexico. "As the President made clear in January, we support the company's interest in proceeding with this project, which will help address the bottleneck of oil in Cushing that has resulted in large part from increased domestic oil production, currently at an eight year high. Moving oil from the Midwest to the world-class, state-of-the-art refineries on the Gulf Coast will modernize our infrastructure, create jobs, and encourage American energy production," the White House said in a statement. Additionally, TransCanada intends to submit a new application for a pipeline from Nebraska to Canada once a new Nebraska route has been identified. "We will ensure any project receives the important assessment it deserves, and will base a decision to provide a permit on the completion of that review," the White House said.

Money supply data for January show that the European Central Bank's generous liquidity policy is working, at least in the short term which means it is even less likely that the ECB will lower borrowing costs further when it meets March 8. The annual growth in M3 accelerated to 2.5% in January following a 0.1 percentage point downwardly revised 1.5% increase in December. The three-month moving average for November-January grew 2.0% on the year, matching the previous period, which had been first estimated at +2.1%. ECB data showed M3 grew 0.7% in January, or EUR68.4 billion, making a U-turn after three straight months of decline, in monthly terms. Consistent with price-stability mandate of an inflation rate of just below 2% over the medium term, the three-month moving average remains well below the ECB's 'reference value' of 4.5%. Data from the European Central Bank showed Monday that Euro-zone bank lending to the private sector in January rose at a slightly faster pace in annual terms than the previous month. Per ECB data, private sector lending increased 1.1% in January, compared with the year-earlier period, after rising 1.0% in December. In January, loans to households grew EUR8 billion after falling EUR7 billion in December. While credit for consumption grew EUR2 billion according to seasonally-adjusted data from the ECB, lending for house purchases grew slightly by EUR4 billion in January. The main refinancing rate of the ECB currently stands at 1%, following 0.25 percentage point cuts in November and December. In Mexico City over the weekend, ECB President Mario Draghi acknowledged that boosting lending to the economy remains a challenge in the euro zone. Draghi said that credit conditions are still tightening despite the central bank's first three-year loan. "We see for the time being" the broad money category of M3 "still declining," he said. "We see credit tightening, we don't see credit booming, and this is true for all of the euro area." The ECB is hoping to give the economy a further shot in the arm Wednesday when it allocates its second, and likely final, three-year loan.


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Daily Market Commentary for February 15, 2012

Excerpts from the January 24-25 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC Minutes)
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Capacity utilization measures how much a factory is being put to use to produce goods with, higher rates of utilization signalizing a rising demand and stronger economy. In January, U.S. industrial production was flat as a 0.7% increase among manufacturers was offset by sharp declines in mining and utilities but, according to the Federal Reserve, the increase in December was much larger than first reported. During December, industrial production was revised higher by 1.0% expansion from an original reading of 0.4%. The latest figures put production 3.4% above year-ago levels, reflecting a steady improvement among the nation’s goods-producing companies. Capacity utilization fell to 78.5% during January, but only because of a sharp upward revision in December. Capacity utilization rate in December was revised up to 78.6% from an initial reading of 78.1%. Over the past 12 months, utilization has risen 1.6 percentage points. During January, manufacturers boosted production, led by automotive output increase by 6.8%. Output at utilities fell 2.5% and production dropped 1.8% in the mining industry. During January, makers of business equipment boosted production by 1.8%; suppliers of non-industrial goods raised production by 0.2%; consumer goods trimmed output by 0.1%; construction companies and producers of materials both reduced their production by 0.4%.

Treasury Department reported for December that foreign investors sold a net $21 billion of long-term U.S. securities strongly much weaker than the $58 billion of net purchases in November. Overseas investors were net sellers of $16.6 billion of Treasurys in December down from net purchasers of $54.0 billion in November. Overseas investors bought a net $27.2 billion of government agency bonds during December compared with $6.2 billion in November. Foreigners were net sellers of $20.7 billion of U.S. corporate bonds in December after net purchasers of $4.8 billion in November. During December, as international demand for corporate bonds remained weak, foreign-based investors sold a net $11.0 billion of U.S. equities. Net foreign purchases of long-term securities was $17.9 billion in December, down from $61.3 billion during November, taking into account purchases by U.S. residents and overseas investors. Sales of Treasury bills, bonds and notes directly attributed to Mainland China were $31.9 billion however, China often trades Treasurys through firms in other countries. During December, Japan was a buyer of $3.5 billion of short and longer-term Treasurys. United Kingdom was a seller of $11.1 billion of Treasurys.

New York Federal Reserve Bank reported Wednesday that the Empire State manufacturing index rose to 19.5 during February, striking its highest level since June 2010 and its fourth straight increase after the index sunk below zero from June through October. New orders index fell to 9.7 in February from 13.7 in January, with mixed underlying conditions. Index for number of employees moved lower to 11.8 during February from 12.1 in January while the average workweek rose to 7.1 from 6.6 in prior month. After hitting its highest level in a year during January, a reading of expected conditions in six-months retreated slightly.

National Association of Home Builders reported Wednesday that home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes climbed during February to 29 from 25 in January - for the fifth consecutive month to reach the highest level in more than four years. Recent gains have been attributed to record-low mortgage rates, cheaper homes and a slowly improving economy. “This is the longest period of sustained improvement we have seen in the HMI since 2007, which is encouraging,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe in a statement. “However, it is important to remember that the HMI is still very low, and several factors continue to constrain the market. Foreclosures are still competing with new home sales, and many builders are seeing appraisals come in at less than the cost of construction.” “Additionally, prospective home buyers are finding it difficult to qualify for a mortgage.” All three of the index’s components, consisting of traffic of prospective buyers, sales expectations for the next six months, and current sales rose in February. The highest reading came from sales expectations, which rose from 29 to 34.

According to releases by the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Wednesday, borrowers seeking a review of their mortgage foreclosures to see if they are eligible to receive compensation or other remedies because of errors in foreclosure actions on their homes have until July 31 to submit their requests to bank regulators. Foreclosure reviews are required by major banks that were sanctioned by the OCC and other regulators in April due to 'negligence' in residential mortgage loan servicing and foreclosure processes. Borrowers are eligible for a review if their mortgage was active in the foreclosure process between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2010. Borrowers who believe they were wrongfully foreclosed upon may soon be eligible to apply and receive compensation from a $1.5 billion fund being established as part of a broad $26 billion bank settlement with states and the federal government reached last week.

Euro-zone finance officials are considering ways of delaying parts or even all of the second bailout program for Greece while still avoiding a disorderly default, according to Reuters. The delay could be until after Greece holds elections, expected in April, which is beyond a large bond repayment Greece has coming due. Euro-zone finance ministers expressed confidence that Greece will have all the pieces necessary to receive its next bailout payment by a meeting in Brussels on Monday, according to a statement from the Euro group. The officials had a conference call Wednesday, which downgraded from a face-to-face meeting due to worries about Greek leaders’ commitment to the latest package of austerity measures.


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